Turkey’s Economic Outlook for 2025

Turkey’s Economic Outlook for 2025. Based on key indicators such as the stock market, interest rates, and inflation, Turkey’s economy in 2025 can be assessed as follows:

1. Stock Market:
   The Borsa Istanbul (BIST-100) index continues to present significant opportunities for investors. Compared to other emerging markets, the index is trading at a discount, with forecasts suggesting it could rise to 15,000 points. This indicates increased demand for the stock market and sustained investor confidence in Turkey. The overall market performance remains positive, making it attractive to investors.
2. Interest Rates:
   The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) set its benchmark interest rate at 37.5% in mid-2025. This high interest rate is implemented to control inflation and ensure economic stability. According to international banks, the CBRT’s decision plays a critical role in reducing inflationary pressures in the Turkish economy. High interest rates aim to attract investors and savers to the Turkish lira, which may help stabilize exchange rate fluctuations.
3. Inflation:
   JPMorgan revised its year-end inflation forecast for Turkey from 27.2% to 29.5%, citing a slower-than-expected disinflation process. The March inflation estimate also increased from 2.3% to 3.2%. These adjustments indicate ongoing economic uncertainties and persistent inflationary pressures. High inflation leads to rising consumer prices and a decline in purchasing power, making government policies on inflation control increasingly crucial.
4. Overall Economic Performance:
   In the first quarter of 2025, Turkey’s economy neither showed significant growth nor faced a severe contraction. This reflects a moderate economic phase, with a balanced approach in economic policies. This stability boosts confidence both domestically and internationally. However, global market fluctuations, geopolitical risks, and domestic economic policies will continue to influence Turkey’s economic trajectory.

These insights provide a summary of Turkey’s economic outlook for 2025. Key economic indicators remain sensitive to global market trends, geopolitical risks, and internal economic strategies, which will shape the country’s financial landscape in the coming months.